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Forecast: Mostly dry for tonight's fireworks, storms return Sunday morning

Florida's Most Accurate Forecast
Florida's Most Accurate Forecast with Jason for Saturday, July 4, 2026
One Minute Weather Tampa Bay 28
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I hope you and your family have had a wonderful Independence Day so far! The forecast for tonight's fireworks looks good!

We'll have a very low 10-20% chance for a pop up shower or storm, but the bulk of the area is now dry thanks to the southwest wind pushing all of the widespread rain over to the East Coast of Florida. Temps will stay in the low to mid 80s through 9 p.m., falling into the 70s after midnight with 80s along the coast.

Sunday morning, the southwest wind will fire up a few showers and storms at the coast, just like we saw this morning. Those showers and storms move inland after noon, and once again, the widespread soakers will all be pushed over to the East Coast.

We'll do this pattern for Monday and Tuesday, but heads up by Tuesday, a pretty thick layer of Saharan dust is moving over the state. That will cut our rain chances back significantly, especially from Wednesday on.

Expect a 10-20% rain chance by then. Exactly what we don't need as our drought conditions persist. We LOVE the Saharan dust when it keeps tropical systems at bay, but unfortunately, we have to deal with it cutting down our rain chance too.