Most Americans don't know much about prediction markets. But what they do know has them worried.
A Scripps News/Talker Research survey of 2,000 Americans finds widespread concerns over platforms allowing users to bet on things like elections and military actions, with little confidence that prediction markets can prevent insider trading or bad actors from taking advantage.
The results come amid a series of headlines about lucrative trades made just before world events, and as some lawmakers push for more oversight over industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket.
HIGH CONCERN OVER BETTING MARKETS AND INSIDER TRADING
While Americans are split over betting on sports, wagering on current events garners higher scrutiny. More than seven-in-ten Americans say they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about platforms allowing users to gamble on election results or military operations, compared to 49% concerned about sports betting.
Betting on if and when public officials resign is slightly less worrisome, at 61%.
A majority of respondents also said they are skeptical that prediction markets can prevent insider trading. Sixty-three percent say they have little to no confidence that it can be stopped, with 73% saying they are concerned that individuals with insider knowledge can manipulate and profit from the sites.
The concerns cross party lines with a nearly identical number of Republicans (75%) and Democrats (74%) saying they don’t trust platforms to stop bad actors.
The survey was taken before news that the Justice Department charged a U.S. soldier for profiting off classified information about the timing of the capture of Nicolas Maduro, and Kalshi’s announcement it took action against three politicians who bet on their own campaigns.
Efforts to distinguish predictions markets from casinos and sports betting have also fallen short with the public. More than 70% of respondents said the platforms should follow state gambling laws, a legal battle that is playing out in a handful of states right now. Kalshi and Polymarket are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Sixty-five percent agreed with the statement the markets are “no different from gambling operations.”
UNDERSTANDING OF PREDICTION MARKETS
Despite the concerns, most Americans don’t know much about an industry that could grow to $1 trillion in trading volume by 2030.
Nineteen percent of Americans say they have placed bets on prediction markets, with 57% saying they are either “not very” or “not at all” familiar with them. Another 16% say they know someone who has used them.
Men (26%) are more likely than women (12%) to have placed bets. But overall, 65% of Americans say they have not used the markets, nor do they know anyone who has.
And most are also skeptical of their predictive power. Fifty-six percent say they do not trust markets to accurately predict events, despite some research they are more accurate than polling.
GENERATIONAL DIVIDES
The younger you are, the more familiar you are with prediction markets. And the more faith you have in them to act ethically and accurately predict events.
A majority of Generation Z (68%) and Millennials (59%) say they are familiar with the platforms.
Thirty-seven percent of 18- to 26-year-olds say they’ve placed bets on the markets, compared to 31% of Millennials. But use for older generations drops dramatically after that, with just 12% of Generation X having used the sites.
Generation Z (67%) and Millennials (57%) also have a higher amount of trust the platforms can accurately predict future outcomes, compared to 44% of overall respondents. They are also the only two generations with a majority confidence that markets can prevent insider trading, though trust in actually doing so is lower.
And despite the youngest generation’s participation in markets and trust they act ethically (60%), a majority (62%) still worries about insiders profiting off them.
This random double-opt-in online survey of 2,000 U.S. registered voters was commissioned by Scripps News and conducted by market research company Talker Research, in accordance with the Market Research Society’s code of conduct. Data was collected from April 14 to April 22, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 points with 95% confidence.
