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Forecast: 4th of July Forecast

Here's your Fireworks Forecast for America 250
Florida's Most Accurate Forecast with Jason for Saturday, July 4, 2026
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TAMPA — I hope you and your family have had a wonderful Independence Day so far! The forecast for tonight's fireworks looks good!

We'll have a very low 10-20% chance of a pop-up shower or storm, but the bulk of the area is now dry thanks to the southwest wind pushing the widespread rain over to the East Coast of Florida. Temps will stay in the low to mid-80s through 9 p.m., falling into the 70s after midnight, with 80s along the coast.

Sunday morning, the southwest wind will bring a few showers and storms to the coast, just like we saw this morning. Those showers and storms move inland after noon, and once again, the widespread soakers will all be pushed over to the east coast.

We'll use this pattern for Monday and Tuesday, but heads up: by Tuesday, a pretty thick layer of Saharan dust will be moving over the state. That will significantly cut our rain chances, especially from Wednesday on.

Expect a 10-20% chance of rain by then. Exactly what we don't need as our drought conditions persist. We LOVE the Saharan dust when it keeps tropical systems at bay, but unfortunately, we have to deal with it cutting down our chances of rain, too.