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Forecast: Scattered storms through Independence Day weekend

Florida's Most Accurate Forecast
Florida's Most Accurate Forecast with Jason Adams for Friday, July 3, 2026
One Minute Weather Tampa Bay 28
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Happy Independence Day weekend, Tampa Bay!

Today's forecast is a hot and muggy one with a few showers and thunderstorms. The sea breeze will drift onshore today between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., and that will kick off a few showers and storms at the coast.

It will drift inland taking the bulk of the afternoon rain chances east of I-75. Highest coverage will be up to 60% inland and around 40% at the coast. Some of the inland moisture may try to head back west later today.

For July 4th, we're expecting a wind shift to change the rainy pattern up for the weekend. A south/southwest wind will work to bring in a few coastal showers and storms during the morning hours west of I-75. The afternoon and evening coverage will be inland, which should allow for most of the area's drone and fireworks shows to have a low risk for rain!

Sunday's outlook is the same as Saturday's. We'll see a few morning showers and storms at the coast, with the highest coverage east of I-75 for the afternoon and evening.