TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Democrats are claiming new momentum after pulling off two upset wins in Tuesday’s special elections, flipping House District 87 in Palm Beach County — which includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home — and Senate District 14 in Hillsborough County. That’s while Republicans held House District 51 in Polk County.
Unofficial county results show Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in HD 87, Democrat Brian Nathan edged Republican Josie Tomkow in SD 14, and Republican Hilary Holley beat Democrat Edwin Perez in HD 51.
WATCH: Democrats flip Mar-a-Lago district, claim fresh momentum in Florida
The wins do not come close to changing control of the Legislature, where Republicans still hold commanding majorities, but they do hand Florida Democrats a badly needed burst of energy ahead of the 2026 midterms. Gregory’s win was especially symbolic: she flipped a district former Republican Rep. Mike Caruso won by 19 points in 2024, and did it in the same district Trump carried and where he now lives.
Democrats say the result is evidence that a stronger field operation and a message centered on affordability can still move voters in Florida. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the path back is not through television ads alone, but through rebuilding party infrastructure and investing in field.
“This is how you build back the party apparatus,” Fried said, adding that national Democrats are seeing “proof of concept” when money is tied to “field programs, boots on the ground, and truly building this grassroots.”
Fried said the state party plans to keep pressing an economic message focused on what she called “the unaffordability crisis” in Florida. Gregory struck a similar note Wednesday, saying the race showed voters were hungry for practical problem-solving rather than partisan theater.
“My theory of the case was always that my neighbors wanted the same things that I do, a fairer, kinder Florida that works for all of us,” she said after the win.
Gregory said the issues she heard most often on the trail were “housing, healthcare, and education.” And while her district now includes Trump as a constituent, Gregory said that will not change how she approaches the job.
“I’m focused on all of District 87,” said the representative-elect. “I’m focused on every Florida family. I’m not going to elevate one constituent over another.”
Republicans, though, are downplaying the broader meaning of the losses. In a Wednesday statement, Florida GOP Chair Evan Power argued the results should not be read as a preview of November.
“We have seen this before; special elections are just that: special,” Power said. “It is not indicative of what can be expected in a general election.”
He pointed to Democrat Tom Keen’s 2024 special-election win in House District 35 before his later loss to Republican Erika Booth, and he emphasized the GOP’s wider success in local races this month along with the party’s statewide registration edge. Florida’s Division of Elections reported 5,535,837 active Republican voters and 4,048,551 active Democratic voters as of Feb. 28, a gap of nearly 1.49 million.
Power’s post-election message also marked a contrast with his tone before the polls closed Tuesday, when he said Republicans were treating the contests as must-win races and argued the party’s turnout machine would carry the day.
“We’ve prepared for every election, and we treat every election like it’s special,” Power said in an interview before Election Day ended. He also predicted Republicans would “continue to shift this state red.”
For longtime Florida political analyst Dr. Susan MacManus, the results do not amount to a statewide realignment, but they do matter. Before polls closed, MacManus said a Democratic win would not be a referendum in a state where Republicans continue to widen their voter-registration advantage. Still, she said it would be “a monumental infusion of energy and momentum for Democrats in Florida” and could help draw in national money.
That may now be the bigger takeaway. Democrats are treating Tuesday night as proof Florida is still worth fighting over if they organize and stay focused on cost-of-living issues. Republicans are arguing it was a low-turnout special-election blip in a state they still dominate. Though one GOP insider offered the party a blunt warning…
“You don’t beat a wave by sitting on the sidelines — you beat it by changing the tide. Republicans can either get to work, or learn to surf.”
Share Your Story with Forrest
Capitol Reporter Forrest Saunders is dedicated to sharing your voice with political leaders throughout the state. He works to hold our elected leaders accountable and amplify your concerns. Let Forrest know about the issues you want state leaders to focus on.
.
Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd recruits unpaid TSA, ICE agents amid shutdown
TSA resignations and absences have skyrocketed since the partial government shutdown began on Feb. 14.
