TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — With fewer than three weeks remaining before Florida’s primary, the Republican race for governor is producing new ads, dueling polls and increasingly pointed attacks—but little evidence that the contest has tightened at the top.
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds remains the clear frontrunner, bolstered by President Donald Trump’s early endorsement, superior name recognition and a significant financial advantage over his Republican rivals.
This week, a political committee supporting Donalds released a statewide television and digital ad centered on affordability. The spot shows Donalds playing basketball with his sons while promising to cut property taxes, lower insurance rates and reduce housing costs.
“My boys deserve the same shot I got—but Florida’s pricing out our future,” Donalds says.
The ad reflects a campaign increasingly focused on pocketbook issues—and one largely looking past former House Speaker Paul Renner, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investor James Fishback.
USF political scientist Susan MacManus said the basic shape of the race has changed little. Donalds’ three leading challengers remain divided, making it more difficult for any one of them to consolidate the opposition.
“Name ID, credibility, Trump endorsement—it’s made it really hard for the other three candidates to gain any traction, no matter how hard they try,” MacManus said.
Public and internal polls tell different stories
A public Cygnal survey conducted July 12-13 found Donalds leading with 43%, followed by Fishback at 12%, Collins at 11% and Renner at 2%. Another 31% remained undecided. The survey included 500 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points. View the Cygnal poll.
Collins’ campaign, however, released an internal poll this week showing a significantly closer contest. That survey put Donalds at 46%, Collins at 30%, Fishback at 9.8% and Renner at 5.9%.
The Collins campaign argued the results show the race consolidating into a two-candidate contest. Public polling has generally shown Collins much farther behind, with Donalds leading his nearest rivals by roughly 30 points or more.
MacManus said Donalds’ support has remained particularly durable among the highly partisan voters most likely to participate in a Republican primary.
“The three people who are running against Donalds are going to split the vote, which makes Donalds’ likelihood of gaining the nomination very, very strong,” she said.
Fishback turns court victory into campaign attack
Fishback is trying to use a courtroom victory to generate momentum after Leon County Circuit Judge David Frank rejected Collins’ attempt to remove him from the ballot.
Florida’s Constitution requires a candidate for governor to have lived in the state for the seven years preceding the election. Collins pointed to Fishback’s 2020 vote in Washington, D.C., his purchase of a condominium there and tax, mortgage and homestead records as evidence that Fishback had established residency outside Florida.
Fishback maintained that he never intended to abandon his Florida residency. Frank ruled that Collins failed to overcome Florida’s legal presumptions favoring continued residency and candidate access to the ballot. Read more about the ruling.
Fishback responded by calling on Collins to resign as lieutenant governor.
“This was not about election integrity,” Fishback said. “This was about rigging an election.”
Collins dismissed the demand and criticized the ruling, Thursday.
“I think that his decision has basically put us in a position where, if you identify as a Floridian, you are a Floridian,” Collins said. “I guess we can be trans-Floridian now.”
Asked whether he would appeal, Collins said his team had not yet made a final decision.
Renner touts record and targets Fauci
Renner is using his closing campaign ads to emphasize his record as House speaker, including the expansion of school-choice programs and conservative legislation passed while he led the chamber.
He is casting himself as the most experienced candidate to continue Gov. Ron DeSantis’ policies.
“If you want to have something as close to Ron DeSantis as possible, I am that person by far,” Renner said.
Renner also escalated his criticism of Dr. Anthony Fauci, alleging the former federal infectious-disease official helped direct taxpayer money to coronavirus research in China that Renner believes led to the pandemic.
“The one that to me is potentially traitorous is his support in directing taxpayer money…for gain-of-function research,” Renner said.
Federal audits confirm that National Institutes of Health grants to the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance included subawards involving the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Department of Health and Human Services’ inspector general found significant failures in NIH and EcoHealth’s oversight of the grants, but its audit did not conclude that the research created SARS-CoV-2 or caused the pandemic. Read the HHS inspector general’s findings.
The origin of the virus remains unresolved. The World Health Organization said the weight of available scientific evidence favors an animal-to-human spillover, either directly from bats or through another animal. The organization has not ruled out a laboratory incident, saying China has not provided information needed to fully evaluate that possibility. Read the WHO assessment.
Jolly looks toward November
On the Democratic side, David Jolly is already focusing his attacks on Donalds.
Jolly this week promised to halt new AI data-center construction until Florida develops stronger protections for its water supply, electric grid, communities and consumer privacy. His campaign also accused Donalds of being too closely aligned with the industry, pointing to millions of dollars in support it says came from interests connected to data-center development.
“Byron Donalds wants to hand ‘pristine’ Florida land over to the data center industry that’s funding his campaign,” Jolly said. “Florida is not for sale.”
Donalds has argued Florida should embrace data centers while imposing protections for residents. He recently introduced federal legislation that would require the facilities to secure electricity and water from private sources instead of relying on public utility systems. The proposal is intended to prevent data centers from raising residential utility costs.
Vote-by-mail ballots have already been distributed for the Aug. 18 primary. Florida’s mandatory early-voting period begins Aug. 8 and continues through Aug. 15, though counties may offer additional days. See Florida’s election calendar.
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