TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — With five days remaining before Florida’s primary, the candidates for governor are making their final sales—and the two parties are ending in very different places.
Republicans are still fighting over their nominee. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is working to protect a commanding lead, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is escalating his attacks and trying to consolidate voters looking for an alternative. Democrats, meanwhile, appear close to settling their primary, allowing David Jolly and running mate Gwen Graham to begin making their case for November.
Donalds stays above the attacks
Donalds, endorsed by President Donald Trump, sounded confident in an interview Thursday but stopped short of declaring the race over.
“You stay confident, you stay focused on what you’re doing,” Donalds said. “I think the fact that the other campaigns attack me every day kind of demonstrates that they, too, know where things are in this race.”
Recent polling supports that confidence. A James Madison Institute survey released in August placed Donalds at 49 percent among likely Republican primary voters, followed by Collins at 18 percent, former House Speaker Paul Renner at 8 percent and investor James Fishback at 4 percent. Twenty-one percent remained undecided.
Donalds kept his closing message centered on affordability, blaming Democratic economic policies for inflation and promising to lower Florida property-insurance costs through changes to the state’s Catastrophe Fund, reinsurance system and home-hardening programs. He also called the property-tax amendment headed to voters only a “first step” and argued that faster permitting could reduce housing and construction costs.
“We feel very good about where we stand today, but it’s in the hands of the voters,” Donalds said. “We’ll see what happens Tuesday night.”
Collins goes on offense
Collins is closing much more aggressively.
During a lengthy virtual news conference, the former Green Beret cast himself as a “day-one ready” Florida executive and Donalds as a Washington celebrity disconnected from working families.
“I mow my own yard, I gassed up my own truck, I live the same Florida life that working families live because I’m one of the people,” Collins said.
He then added a more personal jab: “Byron, I don’t think he probably mows his yard. My guess is he has a landscape architect.”
Collins’ policy pitch included tighter insurance oversight, faster claims and storm permitting, expanded home hardening and the eventual elimination of property taxes on homesteaded homes. He also proposed broader sales-tax holidays for families and tradespeople, a permanent Second Amendment sales-tax holiday and a requirement that large data centers cover the utility costs associated with their operations.
His campaign’s central promise: “Life will get easier. Things will get cheaper. We will be safer.”
Collins called the Republican contest a two-person race and urged Renner, Fishback and the remaining candidates without a viable path to rally behind him. That characterization, however, is not reflected in recent public polling, which consistently shows Donalds leading the field by wide margins.
Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Collins lieutenant governor in August 2025, giving Collins the executive experience he now emphasizes. DeSantis, however, has not endorsed anyone in the race to succeed him.
Despite his attacks, Collins pledged to support the eventual Republican nominee if he loses Tuesday.
“Yes, I will support whoever the nominee is,” Collins said. “And yes, I absolutely think all Republicans should step in and support whoever the nominee is.”
Democrats pivot toward November
The Democratic race has far less suspense.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later became a Democrat, held 47 percent in the latest JMI survey. No other Democratic candidate topped 5 percent. Six candidates remain on the Democratic ballot.
Graham, a former Democratic congresswoman and the daughter of former Gov. Bob Graham, cast her ballot Thursday at Florida A&M University. She chose the historically Black university to highlight voting rights, civil rights and youth participation.
FAMU students helped launch the Tallahassee bus boycott in 1956 after Wilhelmina Jakes and Carrie Patterson were arrested for refusing to follow segregated seating rules.
“FAMU has had a long history of fighting for civil rights, fighting for voting rights,” Graham said. “The students of FAMU have had a historical impact.”
While saying the campaign is taking nothing for granted, Graham made clear the Jolly-Graham ticket is already looking beyond Tuesday.
“It’s a short sprint between August 19th and November 3rd,” she said. “This race is not about being a Democrat, Republican or Independent. What it’s about is the future of Florida.”
Graham described the ticket as centrist and moderate, with an agenda focused on housing affordability, education and healthcare access. She also promised to move Florida away from culture-war fights and what she called political interference in higher education.
A difficult road for Democrats
That appeal to voters outside the Democratic base will be essential. Florida had nearly 3.33 million voters registered with no party affiliation as of July 31, while Republicans held a registration advantage of more than 1.5 million over Democrats, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
Democrats have not won a Florida governor’s race since Lawton Chiles was reelected in 1994. The latest JMI survey showed Donalds leading Jolly 45 to 38 percent in a potential general-election matchup, with roughly one in six voters undecided.
Florida’s primary is Aug. 18. The general election is Nov. 3.
Share Your Story with Forrest
Capitol Reporter Forrest Saunders is dedicated to sharing your voice with political leaders throughout the state. He works to hold our elected leaders accountable and amplify your concerns. Let Forrest know about the issues you want state leaders to focus on.
.
Body cam video, court records reveal years of warning signs before Hillsborough deputies were shot
Christopher Dmuchowski wounded 2 deputies who responded to a domestic violence call in Ruskin. Records show warning signs dating back years.
