ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — A newly redrawn congressional district, the retirement of longtime U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, and growing national interest in control of the U.S. House have combined to make Florida's 16th Congressional District one of the state's most closely watched political races.
The district underwent significant changes after Gov. Ron DeSantis approved a mid-decade redistricting plan that reshaped political boundaries across parts of the state. The new District 16 now stretches from Florida's Gulf Coast deep inland and includes parts of six counties, bringing South St. Petersburg into a district long represented by Republicans.
The district covers Manatee County entirely, along with parts of Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, DeSoto, and Hardee.
Political analysts say the changes have created a more competitive political landscape as candidates vie to replace Buchanan, who announced his retirement after serving 20 years in Congress.
Dr. Susan MacManus, professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Florida, said the new district combines communities with vastly different political priorities.
"It’s now one that's drawn to sort of combine urban and rural parts of the state into one district,” MacManus said.
MacManus said the district still leans Republican but could be more competitive than previous versions represented by Buchanan.
“Can you understand the thinking behind wanting to do that?” Tampa Bay 28 reporter Michael Paluska asked.
"The thinking is that it's still a leaning Republican district in terms of registration, but it is a bit more competitive than it was previously when Vern Buchanan held a different configured district”
South St. Petersburg, known for its large LGBTQ community and progressive politics, is now part of the district. The city hosts one of the largest Pride celebrations in the South and is expected to play an important role in the election.
Dr. Byron Green-Calisch, founder and co-executive director of Justice Over Everything and president of St. Pete Pride, said he was disappointed when he learned his community would become part of the district.
"I’d like to say I was surprised, but I was not…It was disheartening to see," Dr. Green-Calisch said.
Dr. Green-Calisch said the district's size presents challenges for both voters and candidates.
“Even for any candidate trying to cover all of those communities to make sure that the electorate is heard in those spaces here in South St. Pete alone, a candidate could spend days talking to residents and still not be done.”
He also questioned whether communities such as South St. Petersburg will have enough influence within the larger district.
"How are we going to be able to affect change in a way that makes sense or get whatever candidate that is elected to that seat to push for the same experiences, the same needs that we have in South St. Pete?"
Others see the changes differently.
Cliff Gephart organized one of the largest pro-Trump boat parades in the South. Gephart tells Paluska he is a conservative voter, concerned citizen, and MAGA supporter who welcomed South St. Petersburg's addition to the district.
"Yeah, because I'd like to have representation that more aligns with my beliefs. So yes, I absolutely am,” Gephart said.
Gephart said he believes the district will remain Republican despite the inclusion of more liberal voters.
"I think it's probably a Republican stronghold how they've drawn the maps, and I don't think there's any jeopardy that this district will become a Democrat district,” Gephart said.
When asked about South St. Petersburg's political leanings, Gephart responded:
"They’re not going to be happy.”
He also argued the new map may create a more politically balanced district.
"They probably tried to make it more inclusive and carve out, you know, enough of the, I guess you'd say liberals, and you know conservatives to make it at least a more fair district than it was when Kathy Castor ran the one I was in,” Gephart said.
Democrats have identified District 16 as a potential pickup opportunity as they seek to gain seats nationally.
MacManus said the outcome could have implications beyond Florida if control of the House comes down to only a handful of seats.
"Certainly could because it's going to go right down to the wire. You know, nationally they're all counting up. You know, if Republicans lose four seats and Democrats pick up four net, that changes who holds the House of Representatives," MacManus said.
As candidates campaign across the sprawling district, the central question remains whether newly drawn boundaries and changing demographics will influence who ultimately represents District 16 in Washington.
“So it's a big race nationally for it to flip to a Democrat?” Paluska asked?
"Right, it would be big news for any district in Florida to flip," MacManus said.
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