TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — In Palm Beach County tonight, a state House race is drawing national attention — because it includes Mar-a-Lago, the home of President Donald Trump — and is shaping up as a test of political momentum in Florida.
What would normally be a low-profile legislative contest has turned into a high-stakes political showdown, with both parties watching closely ahead of the midterms. Republican Jon Maples, backed by Trump, faces Democrat Emily Gregory in a race that’s drawn heavy spending and outside attention.
Trump himself weighed in Monday, urging supporters on social media to turn out and calling Maples a candidate who will “never let you down.” Allies, including Congressman Byron Donalds, also pushed voters to the polls in the final hours.
Republicans say they feel confident heading into Election Day, pointing to the party’s well-built turnout operation. Florida GOP Chair Evan Power said the party’s infrastructure is designed for races like this.
“Our voters are going to turn out, and we're going to win elections because of that,” Power said. “The RPOF and the Florida GOP has built infrastructure that's there for every election, and we're having success because of that.”
That confidence is backed by numbers. Republicans hold a massive statewide voter registration advantage, around 1.5 million voters. The district itself favored Trump by about nine points in 2024.
Still, Democrats see an opening. They point to recent off-year elections in 2025, where Democratic candidates overperformed expectations, and argue frustration over rising costs could resonate with voters in District 87.
Gregory, a small business owner, says affordability issues dominate conversations with voters.
“I think 30 years of Republican rule has not resulted in solutions,” she said.
“You know, the last thing that Floridians that were already struggling needed was $4 gas,” said the Democrat. “So, they are just not being served, and they are saying that every single day to me.”
Political observers say that contrast — between Republican structural advantages and Democratic hopes for momentum — is exactly what makes this race so closely watched. Dr. Susan MacManus, a USF professor emerita, among them.
“If there’s going to be a seat that’s flipped in Florida, it will be this one,” MacManus said.
Still, she cautions that even a Democratic win wouldn’t shift the balance of power in the state, where Republicans maintain a significant advantage. Instead, the impact would be more symbolic, but still important.
“It would be a monumental infusion of energy and momentum for Democrats in Florida,” she said, “for races up and down the ballot.”
The race may ultimately come down to turnout, particularly among no-party affiliated voters, who make up roughly a quarter of Florida’s electorate and have shown signs of leaning Democratic in recent elections.
Whoever wins won’t have long to celebrate. The victor will quickly have to launch a reelection campaign ahead of November, and could soon weigh in on major issues in Tallahassee. That includes the state budget, redistricting and potential property tax cuts expected in upcoming special sessions.
Polls close at 7 p.m. And by the end of the night, Florida may have a clearer answer to a bigger question: is Democratic momentum building, or does the GOP’s advantage still rule the day in the Sunshine State?
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