TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — A new statewide poll commissioned by Democratic-aligned firms offers Florida Democrats an early argument that the party could be more competitive in 2026 than in recent cycles. That’s even as Republicans dismiss the survey as partisan spin and maintain the state continues to trend red.
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The poll, conducted March 27 through April 3 among 1,834 likely Florida voters, found Republicans holding only narrow leads in two major statewide contests. In the governor’s race, Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds led Democrat David Jolly 41.2% to 40.5%. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody led Democrat Alex Vindman 43.4% to 42.2%. In the attorney general’s race, Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez led Republican James Uthmeier 42.8% to 39.6%. Democrats also held a slight edge on the generic congressional ballot, 46% to 45.2%.
The poll was released Monday by EDGE Communications and MDW Communications. In a digital press conference, they argued the results point to growing Democratic opportunity in a state that Republicans have dominated in recent years.
Christian Ulvert, president and founder of EDGE Communications, said the “environment is shifting in real time,” while Michael Worley, president and CEO of MDW Communications, said affordability remains the top issue for voters. Pollsters said no-party-affiliation voters appear to be breaking toward Democrats, while frustration over costs, corruption, and other issues is weighing on the broader Republican brand.
“NPA voters are the most coveted and hard to win block in any election,” said Ulvert. “They're breaking away from Republicans, moving toward Democrats and numbers we have not seen in decades.”
The numbers reflect what Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried has said in recent months. The party has argued that organizing and ground-level investment are beginning to pay off. Fried said voters are increasingly focused on rising costs and dissatisfaction with Republican leadership in Tallahassee and Washington.
“I think that people are seeing it, and they’re waking up, and the electorate is self-correcting,” Fried said last month.
Republicans were quick to reject that interpretation. Florida GOP Chair Evan Power mocked the idea that Florida is becoming competitive again. He’s pointed to his party’s turnout operation and recent statewide success.
“The grift phase of ‘Florida is in play’ is beginning again,” Power wrote in a post about the Monday poll. ”Just like two years ago.”
The poll lands after Republicans posted decisive wins in Florida in 2022 and in 2024. Republicans swept the Florida Cabinet, Trump won the state and the GOP maintained their grip on the legislative supermajorities.
Still, Democrats have recently pointed to several upset wins in special and local elections as evidence that some voter blocs, particularly independents, may be more open to their candidates than they were in the last presidential cycle.
The survey is one early measure of a cycle that is still taking shape. Candidate qualifying is set for June, followed by Florida’s August primary, with the general election scheduled for Nov. 3.
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