LAKELAND, Fla. — It's that time of the year again, Florida.
Just a month after Colorado State University released its full 2026 hurricane forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts fewer hurricanes may form in 2026 during a news conference on Thursday in Lakeland, Fla.
NOAA stresses that early preparation is essential to staying safe all season.
Tampa Bay 28 is live streaming the news conference beginning at 11 a.m. on May 21 on our site here and via Facebook.
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NOAA’s forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) includes "a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season."
NOAA predicts about eight to 14 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher). In that group, the organization forecasts 3-6 will turn into hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Per its site, "NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes."
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, "With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings. Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible."
Recent Notable Hurricanes
September 24-27, 2024 - Hurricane Helene
Category 4 storm. Made first landfall in the Florida Big Bend region as a Category 4 and created a 500-mile path of destruction with catastrophic flooding, damaging winds and power outages.
The storm directly caused at least 175 deaths, making it the deadliest hurricane to hit the United States mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
September 23-30, 2022 - Hurricane Ian
Category 4 storm. Made first landfall in Cuba as a Category 3. Hit the southwestern coast of Florida as a Category 4 and made a second US landfall in South Carolina as a Category 1.
The storm directly caused at least 66 deaths in Florida.
This is a developing story. Tampa Bay 28 will provide more details as they become available.
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