FLORIDA — Colorado State University (CSU) researchers are now predicting a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, pointing to strengthening El Niño conditions as the main reason for the slowdown.
In an updated forecast released July 8, CSU projected just nine named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane during the 2026 season. That falls well below long-term seasonal averages.
The major takeaways include the number of named storms dropping to nine from the original 13 reported (decreasing by a third) and only one hurricane is expected this season.
Forecasters said developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific are expected to increase wind shear across the Atlantic basin. Strong upper-level winds can disrupt tropical systems before they have a chance to strengthen.
Researchers also noted sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean are closer to normal this year, unlike the unusually warm waters seen during recent active hurricane seasons.
Cooler water temperatures provide less energy for storm development.
But despite the lower storm outlook, hurricane experts warned residents not to let their guard down.
CSU emphasized that a single land-falling storm can still have devastating impacts, regardless of how active the overall season becomes.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30.
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