TAMPA, Fla. — For two decades, Kathy Castor has represented the Tampa area in Congress.
But a new congressional map has dramatically changed her district, and Republicans now believe they have a real shot at taking the seat.
Former state Representative Mike Beltran won the Republican nomination Tuesday, which sets up a November showdown with Castor in Florida’s newly drawn 14th Congressional District.
The district is now entirely within Hillsborough County, stretching from parts of Downtown Tampa through South Hillsborough and into Plant City.
Beltran points to the new district’s numbers as evidence Republicans can win. He says it voted for Donald Trump by 10.5 percentage points in 2024. In an interview Wednesday, Beltran said he is confident the district can be flipped.
“Tampa is not a liberal city like New York or San Francisco or Chicago. We are a center-right city, and this seat is rightfully a Republican seat, and I'm going to make sure that happens in November,” he said.
Political analyst Susan MacManus agrees the district has become “much more competitive” and says voters who are not affiliated with either party could be critical in November.
“It really is going to come down, frankly, to how well each of these candidates, but particularly the Congresswoman, can reach into that large group of voters who are No Party Affiliation or belong to one of the minor parties,” she said.
Beltran says his record in the Florida House gives him a way to reach beyond the Republican base. He points to votes where he says he broke with his own party.
Carmen Edmonds, chair of the Hillsborough County Republican Party, says Beltran also has name recognition from his time representing part of the area in the Florida House.
But Democrats argue the new map does not guarantee a Republican victory.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee points to early polling from July that showed Castor leading Beltran 46% to 38%, with 16% undecided.
Democrats are also pointing to Castor’s two decades representing the Tampa area and her record of securing federal funding for infrastructure, housing, and other projects in the region.
MacManus says that familiarity could matter.
“People have heard of her, they know her, they know what she looks like,” MacManus said.
Democrats are also focused on turnout. Hillsborough County Democratic Party Chair Vanessa Lester says the district’s roughly one-third share of voters with no party affiliation could be decisive, and she believes left-leaning voters in that group will break toward Democrats.
Beltran, meanwhile, says the race has national stakes. He expects Republicans to invest heavily because winning the seat could be important to maintaining control of the House.
“The route to maintaining the House majority runs through CD-14,” he said. “We need to have this seat in Republican control come the new year, or we will lose the House majority.”
Both sides now have less than three months to make their cases.
We have reached out to Castor’s campaign for an interview and will update this story with her response.
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