An area of low pressure is now approaching the east coast of Florida. It'll come onshore this morning somewhere between Titusville and Daytona Beach.
The low will move over Florida today. While it's on land, it will not develop. It will, however, bring the chance of flooding from Orlando west through The Villages over to the west coast of Florida around Citrus and Hernando Counties. The heaviest rains will fall just to the south of the track of the low-pressure pressure.
A Flood Watch has been issued for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Manatee, and Hardee counties. Expect two to four inches of rain, with locally heavier amounts, to be possible this afternoon and evening. These amounts, combined with yesterday's heavy rainfall, may cause some rivers and creeks to overflow their banks. Flooding in neighborhoods with poor drainage is also possible. Most of this rain is expected to fall between 2 and 9 p.m. as low pressure moves through.
All the models keep this system weak. The GFS hardly shows a low-pressure center as it moves across the northern Gulf toward the mouth of the Mississippi, while the EURO is a bit stronger, with the system maintaining at least a weak low-pressure system until it reaches around the same location in south-central or southeast Louisiana on Thursday.
The EURO AI is the strongest model, but not by much. It suggests a tropical depression may be possible. The track location is about the same, with a general movement across the northern Gulf toward south-central or southeast Louisiana.
Honestly, there's not a lot to be concerned about in terms of a tropical system that would threaten with wind or surge. Could it briefly become Dexter? Yes, but I don't think that would change much with the forecast.
Whether this stays a low, or becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm, fresh water flooding from rain near the track of the system will always be the biggest danger from this one. The current data shows folks in southern Louisiana need to be most concerned about this, Thursday into Friday.
I'll keep you updated.
Potential record-breaking cold spell
As cold weather shelters open across the Tampa Bay area, Tampa Bay 28 Meteorologist Greg Dee breaks down what to expect from this cold front that may break a 132-year-old record.
